The year 2000 is less than two years away. Colin Thompson, occasional contributor and author of several business management publications, gives a personal view on what it means for us and likely trends.

Before us lies the most important decade in the history of civilisation. A period of stunning technological innovation, unprecedented economic opportunity, political reform and great cultural re-birth. It will be a decade like none that has come before because it will mark the start of the next Millennium with the year 2000. For centuries this symbolic date has stood for the future and what we shall make of it. In less than two years that future will be here.

Already, we have fallen under its domination. The year 2000 acts like a powerful magnet on humanity; it has reached down into the 1990s and intensified the decade. Now it is amplifying emotions, accelerating change, heightening awareness and compelling us to re-examine ourselves, our values and our institutions.

The large social, economic, political and technological changes – the ‘mega trends’ – are slow to form. And once in place they influence us for some time, generally lasting between seven and ten years, or maybe longer. They have the scope and feel of a decade’s worth of change.

In 1982 in the publication Mega Trends they described the trends that were shaping the 1980s. They were the shifts from:

1 Industrial society to information society.

2 Forced technology to high technology

3 National economy to world economy.

4 Short term to long term.

5 Centralisation to de-centralisation.

6 Institutional help to self help.

7 Representative democracy to participatory democracy.

8 Hierarchies to networking.

9 North to South.

10 Either/or to multiple option.

These shifts have continued pretty much on schedule, but they are now only part of the picture. When we entered the 1990s a new set of forces came into play. The practice of dividing the world up into a list of mega trends might, at first, seem a little too arbitrary. Its purpose, however, is not to render itself as being simplistic or superficial, but to establish a categorical foundation on which greater depth of knowledge can be built.

We could say we are drowning in information and starved for knowledge, who knows? In less than ten years the growth in information has grown almost four-fold compared with that of the 1980s.

The Millennium trends of the 1990s have definitely influenced the important elements of all our lives, such as our careers, job decisions, travel, investment choices, where we live and certainly our children’s education. To make the most of this extraordinary decade, we must be aware of the changes that surround us all.

During the 1990s we have seen a media expansion: new television networks and channels, video films, a record number of new magazines, newsletters, journals and newspapers. All are dedicated to delivering the changing news of the day. But we have to measure what the news is really telling us and how much of this information we can absorb. Without a structure or a frame of reference, the vast amount of data that daily comes our way probably whizzes right by us. It is virtually impossible to take it all on board in one day. By the time we reach the next day, fresh news and new problems – I should say challenges – have arrived. Therefore, we miss so much.

Events do not happen in a vacuum, but in a social, political, cultural and economic context. None of us have to accept or agree with every element of the world’s viewpoint. But we do use the structure to measure the news of the day, that is opposing viewpoints and new information. I believe it is importance though, for each individual to craft his or her own view of the world. Also to set-up individual guidelines that impact on our work, relationships and contributions to society.

As we enter this new decade, it could be one of the most important phases of our life. The trends that have occurred in the 1990s will certainly influence our lives throughout the 21st century. These are some of them:

1 The booming global economy of the 1990s.

2 A renaissance in the arts.

3 The emergence of free market socialism.

4 Global life styles and cultural nationalism

5 The privatisation of the Welfare State.

7 The decade of Women in Leadership.

8 The triumph of the individual.

We cannot understand the trends o£ the 1990s without acknowledging the spiritual significance of the Millennium. Most importantly, we must recognise its power to invoke our most positive, powerful visions, alongside our most terrifying nightmares. In the 1990s apocalyptic themes will emerge and re-emerge with stunning regularity.

The word Millennium comes from the Latin ‘mille’, meaning 1,000. On a secular level, a 1,000 year anniversary has come to mean a Golden Age in human history, a time to close the door on the past and embark upon a new era.

As we move forward, the mythology of the Millennium, consciously or not, is re-imaging us all. Some Christian fundamentalists have warned their flocks to prepare for the literal second coming of Christ. At the opposite end of the religious spectrum a wide assortment of occult groups predict the earth will undergo some sort of cataclysmic shift around the year 2000. Headlines about global warming and holes in the ozone layer have convinced many that the time is at hand.

As the date draws nearer, we shall encounter many ways of interpreting the Millennium, one of these being the year 2000 date change. Will this present new challenges and opportunities for business, or can a simple date change destroy our businesses?

This briefing is not intended to scare, though, on a cautionary note, much of the scare factor does emanate from within the computer industry. Its trade press has been full of scare-mongering stories about the end of the world being nigh – in computer terms anyway. The problems were first documented in detail in 1993 by Peter de Jager, a Canadian consultant. However, the problem goes back much further. It originates from the early 1960s when much of today’s software was first written. So, what exactly is the problem? Simply put, poor design of software has meant that the majority of computer programmes written in the last 30 years will not work properly after 1999. They and in all probability, will fail some time beforehand.

The Millennium crisis is not just a computer department issue, it will affect the whole of the organisation and as such, should be treated as highly important. To be fair, considerable money was saved in expensive disk storage space by omitting two characters on every dated item. Programmers ignored the 19 of 19xx and assumed it instead. Therefore, no matter what century a piece of information relates to, the older legacy computer applications will almost always assume they refer to the 20th century. In the 1970s programmers never suspected their programs would still be running at the end of the century. They were certainly wrong, which goes to show how short-sighted human beings are.

Arguably, the day of reckoning has finally arrived and we are now going to pay for all the cost savings as a result of minimising disk storage over the last 30 years. The route of the problem is that most computer application systems were not designed to cater sufficiently for that dates that appear in all types of computer files and databases.

One incorrectly stored date can upset the calculations of all the correctly stored dates around it. The problem may not manifest itself until much later. One leading analyst estimates that the cost of addressing the problem for a medium-sized business – defined as one with 8,000 programs, supporting business functions – will be around £1,000 per program. Think about it, this cost includes awareness, initiatives, the inventory and assessment of a program, the selection and application of a solution and the complete testing of the solution. This figure includes the additional cost of project management, implementation and documentation.

There are four main options to business to counter the effects of date change errors:

1 Repair logic

2 Repair data

3 Rewrite applications

4 Replace packages

The first and second add no extra value to the enterprise, all they do is protect the status quo or prevent a mighty slide backwards. The last two options offer the opportunity to add substantial value to business processes. They may enhance the company’s functionality and business profile as a result. However, the clock is running and there may be only one added-value option realistically left open. So let us all think now of the consequences of the year 2000.